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Originally posted by “FibMaster”. Wed Aug 26, 2009 11:09 am
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Right now, the AUDJPY has rallied to the 4-hour down-channel, where we have significant Fibonacci resistance at 78.30 area. If we get a reversal here, we can consider shorting with that down-channel. After that, we’ll see about support levels etc.
No shorting above the channel, certainly not above 78.50
Originally posted by “FibMaster”. Thu Aug 27, 2009 6:51 am
Breaking down. 30-minute TRSI trend heads south, can short rallies on lower time-frame.
Watch for support near 78.00 could give complications.
Originally posted by “Kim”. Thu Aug 27, 2009 7:08 am
Hi Neal,
The SK Resistance @78.30 and channel top formed a very strong resistance. The price has dropped down towards today’s low @77.25. (now is 77.57)
I nearly wanted to enter long when 15min has one up bar around 78.20, but after reading your analysis I decided to PATIENTLY wait! At least I have not loss money by entering LONG! I love this forum now!
Originally posted by “Cal”. Thu Aug 27, 2009 7:15 am
Neal,
What are your thoughts on using 1 min SK resistance for entries at 77.75 and 77.8? 5 min SK is hard to come by!! Also there is some SK at 77.9.
Originally posted by “FibMaster”. Thu Aug 27, 2009 7:18 am
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Kim, I’d say that resistance worked. Seems to have kicked in! See chart attached, looks like a down-move?
Good decision not to long that one!
The only way to trade that is very low time-frames, jump in for quick a move down. There is a little support on 1 minute chart now, so I have time to write.
Now on the higher time-frames, we need to be patient, wait for a rally to short. If it doesn’t clear through resistance levels, and doesn’t stall into consolidation, we’ll get some great short setups later.
This forum is great. I may not have seen this short setup if members hadn’t drawn my attention to it.
Originally posted by “FibMaster”. Thu Aug 27, 2009 7:25 am
Cal, Yes, you either stand aside and wait for higher time-frame rally, or you jump in on 1 min charts for mini-rallies to short. It’s gutsy, and you have to keep a close stop-loss, but the only way to trade a sharp thrust.
Originally posted by “Cal”. Thu Aug 27, 2009 7:35 am
Ok thrusting has relaxed. I am looking at the 77.9 to 78 to short. Another question when have time. How much do you consider time of the day for entry? I tend to think 11:00 AM Eastern is usually when market will continue in it’s trend.
Originally posted by “FibMaster”. Thu Aug 27, 2009 7:42 am
Cal,
The rally has gained some strength. It’s near SK resistance from micro-time-frames at 77.80 now.
Need to watch 5 minute chart for short, should see weakness on lower time-frames.
If you look at 5 minute or 10 minute charts, you see a DiNapoli Bread and Butter pattern.
The profit objective for that is not huge though.
If we get a 5-minute short trigger, worth a try , run it as far as the TRSI allows, ie fish in barrel.
As for time of day, I’m looking more at price action and momentum than the clock. Sure time of day is important, as in Friday afternoon lol.
Often we get consolidation after a sudden move, so can’t be overly optimistic about a continuation of the thrust, just see what it gives.
Originally posted by “Rhino”. Thu Aug 27, 2009 8:26 am
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Trade Date/Time Type Instrument B/S Rate
8/27/2009 12:48 new AUD/JPY S 78.36
8/27/2009 12:48 new AUD/JPY S 78.39
8/27/2009 13:45 settlement AUD/JPY B 77.87
8/27/2009 14:09 settlement AUD/JPY B 77.66
Did anyone else short the 4h trendline? Or was that a rookie mistake and I got lucky?
I see lots of resistance at 78, don’t know if it’ll make it back up there to look for another short….
Originally posted by “FibMaster”. Thu Aug 27, 2009 8:26 am
Great trading Rhino! 60 pips in the bank!
I see that same resistance, will evaluate a short at that time.
) it worked out well! i’ve attached a chart–60min. i used that to find my fib studies. i took them off cuz it looked pretty confusing, but u can see the green lines are my sk support. i added more info on the chart. i like to use 2 contracts and exit the first one quickly (2 points)and move my stop up to B/E, ensuring a small profit ($100) even if things turn against me. i’m kind of a ‘be safe’ girl that way….
