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Originally posted by “Kim”; Wed Oct 28, 2009 10:12 pm

 

Hi Lifesong,

The USDCHF weekly TRSI is in down trend and the significant support will be at @1.0000. The daily SK resistance @1.0290 is also a long term downward trend line touch. 4hrly TRSI is in overbought level (70) with the bearish shooting star candle formed. I enter short @1.0260, stop loss just above the SK resistance @1.0320. The target is around 1.0050 (the last low). Pls comment!

Regards,
Kim

 

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Originally posted by “FibMaster”; Thu Oct 29, 2009 4:30 am

 

Good morning Kim,

Looks like a good setup. Your entry is a bit early, but could work. Still rallying on 60 minute (HHHL).

First test is support at 1.0230 then 1.0200 and then it looks better below that.

60 min chart attached.

 

 

 

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Originally posted by “Kim”; Thu Oct 29, 2009 6:07 am

 

Hi Neal,

Thanks for the comment. Now the price has broken down the 1.0230 with good thrust toward the 1.0200 support. I will exit the trade if the price doesn’t break the 1.0193 swing low – which will change the price action from HH HL to the 1st LL.

Regards,
Kim

 

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Originally posted by “FibMaster”; Thu Oct 29, 2009 6:11 pm

 

Good work Kim, you’re doing great!

You’re sitting happy right now.. Nice drop and your aggressive entry paid off.

I don’t want to interrupt your strategy. Per the live chat yesterday, if you’re itching to get out, consider a partial instead of total exit? Make sure your stop is better then break-even for the rest. But only if you have that same urgency to exit as you had in a prior trade.

I see some resistance at 1.02 approx, if it rallies above that, perhaps exit at the end of the next dip (HL)? This depends on your personality, if you can take the stress of giving it room, and if you can monitor the trade while it tests you..

Of course, if it just continues down, big smiles!

 

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Originally posted by “FibMaster”; Thu Oct 29, 2009 6:22 pm

 

I added some detail in tonight’s DFC video recording, so listen to it, will mail it out in the next hour or less…

 

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Originally posted by “Kim”; Thu Oct 29, 2009 7:38 pm

 

Hi Neal,

Thanks! I’m still in this trade. I have moved my SL to 1.0250 (BE) and set the 1st target @1.0135 – the SK support of FE261.8 and Fib 61.8 SK(see 4hrly chart) and 2nd target at the last swing low @1.0050.

Regards,
Kim

 

 

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Originally posted by “FibMaster”; Fri Oct 30, 2009 4:33 am

 

USDCHF is in a consolidation. No HHHL so not rallying at this time. If it were rallying, you would want to exit on a swing low, before hitting your stop (30 min chart).

These stalls can be frustrating unless you are accustomed to higher time-frames, or uncomfortable risking some profits for further gain.

If it’s too frustrating/painful, the traders can exit the consolidation and re-enter if there is a break in the future, or at a rally to SK resistance.

30 min chart attached.

 

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Originally posted by “Kim”; Fri Oct 30, 2009 5:15 am

 

FibMaster wrote: If it’s too frustrating/painful, the traders can exit the consolidation and re-enter if there is a break in the future, or at a rally to SK resistance.
If it’s too frustrating/painful, the traders can exit the consolidation and re-enter if there is a break in the future, or at a rally to SK resistance..

Hi Neal,

To ease the frustration, I took half the profit @1.0180 (+80pips) and moved my SL @1.0240 and was stopped out. Net 60pips profit!

I will watch closely for the next possible SHORTING trade setup if it reaches the prior resistance @1.0290 area.

Regards,
Kim

 

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Originally posted by “FibMaster”; Fri Oct 30, 2009 5:17 am

 

OK Good move. That last whip was severe and fast! right up to the .618

 

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Originally posted by “PM”; Thu Oct 29, 2009 1:22 pm

 

Hi

I am Looking at the EURUSD Daily Chart. The pair has just bounced off a strong support level (Trend Line Support and SK Level Support) Now it appears that the pair may continue the Up Trend. Is this a good time to go long on this pair

Regards
Philip

 

 

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Originally posted by “Kim”; Thu Oct 29, 2009 4:29 pm

 

Hi,

The SK Support @1.4715ish is definitely hold and now the price has gone up to the 4hrly resistance level @1.4830 (see 4hrly chart). A decisive break above this level will be a good LONG entry towards the last swing high @1.5070. You may have to go down to 15min chart to see the HL HH above the SK resistance to find LONG entry point as now is Asia session, the price tends to be slow with low volatility.

Regards,
Kim

 

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Originally posted by “FibMaster”; Fri Oct 30, 2009 4:51 am

 

Further to Kim’s post, EURUSD is trapped on a lower time-frame between 1.48 and 1.4860

Short rallies below, buy dips above imo. Scalpers will be trading that range as long as it holds.

15 minute chart attached.

 

 

 

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Originally posted by “FibMaster”; Mon Nov 09, 2009 4:25 pm

 

I thought I’d post a follow-up, there was a great scalp short on this chart.

Entry would have been on an SK Fibonacci resistance, 5 minute chart, though you’d have to be comfortable with quick trades in those lower time-frames.

I know many traders in this forum are not short-term scalpers. These techniques are applicable to all trading time-frames, so the concepts are the same, this example is worthwhile.

 

 

 

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A free preview of a Fibonacci Trading DailyForexCharts member update on the DOW.

Forex charts can be influenced by the DOW, and trading action on that chart is important to watch for anyone Fibonacci trading a Dollar pair.

What exactly is the relationship? That is a point of debate, and the correlation between currencies and the DOW, Oil, GOLD, Unemployment and any number of other factors is constantly changing.

In past months, the Dow and USD have been inversely linked (correlated) because the dollar is more attractive when there’s a resurgence of fear and risk aversion. In times of fear and increased risk aversion, stocks will sell off and the DOW will decline. As confidence increases, investors feel more secure, stocks become more attractive and start rising. Then the USD loses value as the flight to quality declines.

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Below are trades and comments from members at FibMaster’s Trading Forum.<<-Click to join

 

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Originally posted by “Lifesong”; Tue Oct 27, 2009 4:28 am

 

Perhaps not the ideal longterm trade, because of interest rate differential, but perhaps a short term counter trend trade is developing.

Daily TRSI close to 75 level, Weekly TRSI ended last week above 70 level and we are currently back at longterm swing high @ 98.40 of 15 months ago. Another interesting observation on the Daily chart is that the 161.8 Fib expansion from swings from bottom in Oct ‘08 coincides with double top level @ 98.46 (see chart). All these could be indicative that a possible reversal is developing on Daily and this pose well for short term counter trend trades. The 4H TRSI is close to crossing down and 60min is already down and first significant SK support on 4H is around 97.00-20 level with next SK support @ 96.11-21 level.

I’ve taken the higher risk/higher reward trade by entering short @ 98.15 after 60min TRSI cross and my stop is located @ 98.75 (which is above swing high) with first profit target @ 97.15

Any comments?

 

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Originally posted by “Kim”; Tue Oct 27, 2009 5:03 am

 

Hi Lifesong,

Another good pair to short. The 98.50 is a very strong long term resistance as it has resisted in Feb 05, Apr 05, Jun 08, few times in Jul 08.

Regards,
Kim

 

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Originally posted by “FibMaster”; Tue Oct 27, 2009 5:42 am

 

This long-term prior resistance is prime for a trend change. Let’s keep this pair in our sights. May take some time to develop, and we should not be in too much of a hurry.

 

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Originally posted by “Lifesong”; Tue Oct 27, 2009 9:50 pm

 

Hi Neal & Kim

Are you trading this pair or did you miss the move???

I am still live with my short from 98.15 and at the moment we are still hovering around first SK support on 4h @ 97.10 level. For the time being I’ll keep an eye on whether 97 level will give way, because I notice that 161.8 Fib expansion on 4h will coincide with next 4h SK support @ 96.15 (see chart) and this looks a possibility. Current SK resistance on 60min is @ 97.40-50 and I’ll move my disaster stop to just above 97.50 whilst giving the chart a chance to indicate if 97 will break.

Any comments or suggestions?

 

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Originally posted by “Kim”; Tue Oct 27, 2009 10:35 pm

 

Hi Lifesong,

I used sell limit @0.9820 so I missed this trade.

Regards,
Kim

 

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Originally posted by “Lifesong”; Wed Oct 28, 2009 8:47 am

 

Hi Kim

Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this trade.

Some stalling of price on 15 & 60 min charts and I closed the 70% of my trade @ 96.85 for a 130 pip winner! The reason for this is that price is stalling and not much happened over the last few hours, but more importantly my broker charges triple the overnight charges on a Wednesday evening and I don’t want it to erode my profits unnecessarily. The remainder is still live with stop @ 97.50 and hopefully this will take me to the low 96 level.

 

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Originally posted by “FibMaster”; Tue Nov 10, 2009 6:51 am

 

Great trading ! 130 pips and it looks like an easy ride.

 

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Originally posted by “Lifesong”; Sun Oct 25, 2009 11:24 pm

 

Looks like potential double top formed on Daily around 91.40-50 and Daily TRSI is extremely close to 75 level (see chart). On 4H TRSI crossed down and first SK support is @ 89.80. Taking these aspect into account I believe a high probability risk/reward trade could emminate from this.

 

 

 

 

Even though Daily TRSI is still heading up, the 4H crossed down and lower SLSH pattern must still follow. It’s now just after 06:15 GMT and I’ve entered a premature risky trade @ 91.25 with SL @ 91.75 (above previous SH) and my first profit target is 90 level, because of SK support @ 89.80. I realise that confirmation of lower SLSH on 4H must follow, but I am comfortable with risk of 50 pips and profit potential of 125 pips.

Any comments are appreciated and I’ll follow the trade during the early part of the week.

 

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Originally posted by “Kim”; Mon Oct 26, 2009 1:38 am

 

Hi Lifesong,

That’s a good shorting opportunity for double top formation with 4hrly TRSI trend down and a strong SK support @89.80 (also a previous resistance). I short @91.27, SL 91.80, target 90.00.

Regards,
Kim

 

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Originally posted by “FibMaster”; Mon Oct 26, 2009 4:55 am

 

I see lower swing highs, but 91.00 is still supporting. LHLL below there would have better odds, though a worse entry price.

60 minute chart attached, consolidating.

 

 

 

 

 

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Originally posted by “Kim”; Tue Oct 27, 2009 7:35 am

 

Hi Lifesong and Neal,

Thanks! I’ve just exited the shorting trade @90.00 for 127 pips!

Regards,
Kim

 

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Originally posted by “Kim”; Tue Oct 27, 2009 7:44 am

 

Hi Neal,

Can you pls illustrate how to find the next possible shorting entry based on this chart as the 1hrly chart has show a LH LL(see 1hrly chart)? Daily, 4hrly and 1hrly TRSI all cross down but it has reached the SK Support @89.80. Do you think there is another shorting opportunity?

Regards,
Kim

 

 

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Originally posted by “FibMaster”; Tue Oct 27, 2009 8:35 am

 

Wow great trade! Turns out your early entry really paid off, and a later entry would not really have had a chance.

 

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Originally posted by “Lifesong”; Tue Oct 27, 2009 9:35 pm

 

Hi Neal & Kim

I’m still live with my trade, because 4h TRSI is still heading down strongly and will start to apply some caution. On the 4h I notice next SK support @ 88.63-82 and will probably lock in 50% of my profits for 200+ pip gain if it seems that a short term bounce is developing. The remainder of the trade I’ll move my stop to just above current SK resistance on 60min which is currently located @ 90.05, but it could change if price heads lower some more. My objective with the second portion is to wait for possible break of 88.60 level, because on Daily the first noticeable SK support is @ 87.70 level.

I attach my charts and any comments or suggestions are welcome.

Click image to enlarge

Click image to enlarge

Click image to enlarge

 

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Originally posted by “Lifesong”; Wed Oct 28, 2009 8:59 am

 

Hi Kim & Neal,

Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this trade.

Some stalling of price on 15 & 60 min charts and I closed my trade @ 89.00 for a 225 pip winner! The reason for this is that price is stalling and not much happened over the last few hours, but more importantly my broker charges triple the overnight charges on a Wednesday evening and I don’t want it to erode my profits unnecessarily. I am also taking a long weekend break and would rather enjoy the good fortunes than being left in the open, because I won’t be able to trade till early next week.

It could be that price is still heading down on Daily, but I expect a bounce on 4h, because TRSI is close to 25 level and possibly signalling exhaustion. I’d rather bank the profits than be greedy and I’m happy with the way the trade turned out. Perhaps a new short entry will be presented later, but if I’m not around I hope you catch it!!

 

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Originally posted by “FibMaster”; Tue Nov 10, 2009 7:11 am

 

The chart did go down somewhat after your exit, but it was volatile and rallied strongly. Excellent trading, both of you. Big gains, very impressive, congratulations!

 

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ORIGINAL POST on 19 Oct 2009:
This is a preview of a trade under discussion at the Fibonacci Trading Forum at DailyForexCharts.com.

Cable (GBPUSD) is at a key decision point here. I have marked the attached Daily chart with a green arrow for a long zone and a red arrow for a short zone. The 1.6400 level is critical.

Look to short rallies in the red shorting zone, or buy dips in the green long zone.

To monitor specific entry/exit details as the trade progresses, join us in the Fibonacci Trading Forum at DailyForexCharts.com

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UPDATE on 20 Oct 2009:
Trading is often not as clean and tidy as we would like. Since the Trade alert above, GBP/USD has stalled right around the predicted 1.64 area. This pair could break either way, but the problem now is to avoid being tempted into false triggers.

Patience is important, we must wait for a break to be confirmed, and then we want a follow-through with momentum after entry.

DailyForexCharts members are monitoring this (potential) trade in the Fibonacci Trading Forum.

I will post an update here in the coming days after my live chat session with DailyForexCharts members.

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160 Pips Profit – UPDATE on 22 Oct 2009:

I was planning to update this trade setup, when a DailyForexCharts member posted a message on the Fibonacci Trading Forum. His message summarizes the trade perfectly, so I have copied it below. Click the chart below to see his trade. The Yellow triangle/arrow is the entry, for a 160 pip profit.

You can learn these trading techniques easily, just watch my video lessons.

>MartinUK wrote:
>
> Hi Neal
>
> Thanks again for a great live chat very useful and very informative, I
> must say I have joined many clubs re-forex to learn forex trading, but
> yours is by far the best, the interaction you have between and for your
> members is first class.
>
> For me as I love fibs /support & resistance / and price action
> ( candles) your way of trading is the best for me.
>
>Thanks again for all your time and help
> MartinUK

 

See what this DailyForexCharts member says about my trading techniques. Read about his winning trade below!

 

You have changed my life and over the past few days! My trading has taken off to heights I hoped for, for so long…

What your lessons have given me is for me to trade with more confidence- plan my trade and trade my plan; then walk away and let the trade play out…

Your teachings have given my equity curve a steady growth over the past few days. That’s what I am so grateful for. And yes, there will be more losses but I know my profits will exceed losses…

You’ve been a great mentor to me even though our relationship is only a few days old.
I look forward to continuing my growth with you.

D.F.

 

See how this trader took advantage of predicted stronger Fibonacci support (SK support level), for a quick profit. This is really easy to learn, so if it seems complex, don’t stress!
I make it really easy for you to understand in my video lessons.

 

Here is the discussion copied from the Fibonacci Trading Forum.

 

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Originally posted by “D.F.”; Fri Oct 09, 2009 9:18 am

 

Hi Neal,

EURUSD has found support at 1.4676 which according to my chart is also a SK (my SK 38.2% = 1.4678 and 61.8% = 1.4688). It has also double bottomed and appears to be heading North now.

Hope it’s OK to attach my chart.

D.F.

 

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Originally posted by “FibMaster”; Sun Oct 11, 2009 9:48 pm

 

Hi D.F.,

Sure it’s OK to post a chart, but yours didn’t show in the post.

Yes there is SK support there.

Please view my video recording from earlier tonight, about the long opportunity.
http://www.dailyforexcharts.com/charts/091011_EURusd_o9/091011_EURusd_o9.html

I’m off to bed soon, back in a few hours..

-Neal.

 

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Originally posted by “D.F.”; Mon Oct 12, 2009 1:45 am

 

 

Hello Neal,

I appreciate the prompt reply. I took the trade earlier on EURUSD and banked 25 PIPS. The reason I did not let the trade run is because there was a resistance SK at 1.4731 – see my chart. Price has now moved down to the first SK at 1.4768. These are all on the 1 hour chart.

 

 

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Originally posted by “FibMaster”; Mon Oct 12, 2009 6:37 am

 

Banking profits makes sense in these markets. Now pushing higher, there is resistance 1.48 area though.

 

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Originally posted by “D.F.”; Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:28 pm

 

Hi Neal,

I see the strong resistance at 1.4800 – 1.4817. If these levels of resistance are broken, we could see price move towards the 161.8% around 1.4900, even moving up to 1.5025.

As it’s found strong resistance at 1.4912, I will watch for a retracement back to the SK levels 1.4728 or lower to 1.4688. Price is at the same highs as Sep and Dec 2008. Interestingly, this area also proved to be strong resistance during Sep 2007 to Jan 2008 – looks like a very strong level of resistance. I’ll exercise caution around this level.

D.F.

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Have you noticed less momentum, more whipsaw, smaller trends and more ranging markets lately?

In today’s charts, I want to show how some subtle market changes can eat into your profits, and what you should do about them. We must adapt to maintain our profitability.

This blog post will help you gain & maintain profits in current conditions.

Markets are continuously evolving, they never rest, and they never remain constant.

Traders must maintain a sense of current market action, and monitor for changes. Trends change, volatility changes, momentum changes. All of these have an effect on profitability.

 

We are fortunate that Fibonacci and TRSI automatically take changes into account, because they both use price action to help us control risk and take profits. However, there are some long-term subtle changes that we should take into account when we plan our trading strategy.

Start with the DOW and Gold chart on the left. These are monthly charts, showing a strong rally by both of them, with an up-trend on the TRSI. The TRSI has been pointing the way to profits, but what I really want you to notice is the Average True Range (ATR). Both of these charts are showing a dramatic drop in ATR. You would find the same ATR pattern on the weekly chart.

 

Now look at the second chart showing EURUSD and the USDJPY monthly charts. It’s the same picture, the ATR is dropping fast! USDJPY is the down-trending chart on the left, and EURUSD is the rallying chart on the right.

 

As usual, the TRSI is reliably showing the trend of the chart. Whether in an up-trend or down-trend, the ATR is dropping aggressively. 2009 is a year of falling ATR.

 

 

Just to prove the point, I have also supplied the GBPUSD and Oil (e-mini crude) to show the same phenomenon. ATR is plummeting!

Whatever you are trading, look at the monthly ATR. Pay attention to this, the markets are changing.

What does it mean? World-wide, many trading instruments are trading in smaller moves, less momentum, shorter trends, lower volatility. There are practical implications for traders, and it may be showing in your trading account.

 

 

If you are not adapting, you are taking more losses and making fewer profits. Your trades are moving slower (less momentum), and you experience more whipsaw.

We can expect lower momentum, with more consolidation and trading ranges, overall less volatility.

What should you do? As long as this pattern continues on monthly and weekly charts, we must capture smaller moves. Generally, our profit targets should be closer, and our exits quicker. If we are entering on a trend, we can expect smaller retracements for quicker entries, and overall, smaller moves to nearby profit-points. In general, we must be more nimble, ready to take a profit and re-enter if the move continues.

Members of DailyForexCharts are constantly updated on market conditions, and traders who have studied my seminars on Price Action and TRSI trading are well positioned the adapt with the markets.

Monitor the markets, price action tells you everything!

-Neal “FibMaster” Hughes.

 

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Below are trades and comments from members at FibMaster’s Fibonacci Trading Forum.<<-Click to join

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Originally posted by “FibMaster”; Wed Oct 07, 2009 5:03 am

In case anyone is trading USDJPY long on that quick rally.. Higher time-frames show lower highs and lower lows, down-move. Two resistance areas, profit targets.

I would usually expect the lower resistance to hold, but with that up-thrust, the second one is possible.

30 minute chart attached.
 

 

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Originally posted by “FibMaster”; Wed Oct 07, 2009 7:15 am

 

In case anyone wonders about the accuracy of FibMaster’s charts…

Updated 30 minute chart attached. Powerful reversal right at my predicted resistance level.

Fibonacci + TRSI = WOW!

Sometimes the best trading ideas are not complicated. Here is a simple technique that can make a big difference to your trading.

Combine an overbought/oversold indicator with Fibonacci for a higher probability of catching a market reversal.

This video is geared toward newer traders, but more advanced traders may find a gem concept here too.