AUD/CAD Mid Term 27 Oct 2009
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Originally posted by “Lifesong”; Tue Oct 27, 2009 4:28 am
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Perhaps not the ideal longterm trade, because of interest rate differential, but perhaps a short term counter trend trade is developing.
Daily TRSI close to 75 level, Weekly TRSI ended last week above 70 level and we are currently back at longterm swing high @ 98.40 of 15 months ago. Another interesting observation on the Daily chart is that the 161.8 Fib expansion from swings from bottom in Oct ‘08 coincides with double top level @ 98.46 (see chart). All these could be indicative that a possible reversal is developing on Daily and this pose well for short term counter trend trades. The 4H TRSI is close to crossing down and 60min is already down and first significant SK support on 4H is around 97.00-20 level with next SK support @ 96.11-21 level.
I’ve taken the higher risk/higher reward trade by entering short @ 98.15 after 60min TRSI cross and my stop is located @ 98.75 (which is above swing high) with first profit target @ 97.15
Any comments?
Originally posted by “Kim”; Tue Oct 27, 2009 5:03 am
Hi Lifesong,
Another good pair to short. The 98.50 is a very strong long term resistance as it has resisted in Feb 05, Apr 05, Jun 08, few times in Jul 08.
Regards,
Kim
Originally posted by “FibMaster”; Tue Oct 27, 2009 5:42 am
This long-term prior resistance is prime for a trend change. Let’s keep this pair in our sights. May take some time to develop, and we should not be in too much of a hurry.
Originally posted by “Lifesong”; Tue Oct 27, 2009 9:50 pm
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Hi Neal & Kim
Are you trading this pair or did you miss the move???
I am still live with my short from 98.15 and at the moment we are still hovering around first SK support on 4h @ 97.10 level. For the time being I’ll keep an eye on whether 97 level will give way, because I notice that 161.8 Fib expansion on 4h will coincide with next 4h SK support @ 96.15 (see chart) and this looks a possibility. Current SK resistance on 60min is @ 97.40-50 and I’ll move my disaster stop to just above 97.50 whilst giving the chart a chance to indicate if 97 will break.
Any comments or suggestions?
Originally posted by “Kim”; Tue Oct 27, 2009 10:35 pm
Hi Lifesong,
I used sell limit @0.9820 so I missed this trade.
Regards,
Kim
Originally posted by “Lifesong”; Wed Oct 28, 2009 8:47 am
Hi Kim
Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this trade.
Some stalling of price on 15 & 60 min charts and I closed the 70% of my trade @ 96.85 for a 130 pip winner! The reason for this is that price is stalling and not much happened over the last few hours, but more importantly my broker charges triple the overnight charges on a Wednesday evening and I don’t want it to erode my profits unnecessarily. The remainder is still live with stop @ 97.50 and hopefully this will take me to the low 96 level.
Originally posted by “FibMaster”; Tue Nov 10, 2009 6:51 am
Great trading ! 130 pips and it looks like an easy ride.
