AUD/USD Near Term – 10 Sep 2009
Below are trades and comments from members at FibMaster’s Trading Forum.<<-Click to join
Originally posted by “Steve”; Thu Sep 10, 2009 8:51 am
Click to enlarge
Aussie at 60m Fib support, and TRSI bounced at 40, in an uptrend. So looking for profit at the highlighted conservative 1272 near 8663.
Originally posted by “Hussam”; Thu Sep 10, 2009 11:10 am
Hi Steve,
Well done. I think you are at or close to target.
Hussam.
Originally posted by “Steve”; Thu Sep 10, 2009 11:51 am
Click to enlarge
Hi, Hussam,
Getting closer to final target. audusd and audjpy were the slow ones today. nzdusd and nzdjpy were the crisper trades.
Originally posted by “FibMaster”; Fri Sep 11, 2009 5:28 am
Hi Steve, where did you exit, how many pips did you profit?
Originally posted by “FibMaster”; Fri Sep 11, 2009 5:34 am
Cal, did you trade it? How did you do?
I’ll post some analysis and charts for you in a few minutes.
Originally posted by “FibMaster”; Fri Sep 11, 2009 5:41 am
Click image to enlarge
How a trader handled this chart really depends on his/her trading time-frame. As with any trade, there are trade-offs, risks and rewards.
Here is a 60-minute chart, showing the TRSI cross up at support. That trigger was a good one, starting with the 4:00am candle (my time-zone). If you stayed with that trigger, there was a long ride up to the top near .8645
If you used that 60-minute as your trend instead of your trigger, then you were trading lower time-frames. Lower time-frames were more complicated (see next post).
Originally posted by “FibMaster”; Fri Sep 11, 2009 5:54 am
Click image to enlarge
Here is a 15 minute chart. It shows a vertical blue line where the 60 minute trend went upward. Actually that was a 60-min candle, which only closed at 5:00 (my time-zone), so trend was officially up at 5:00, when AUDUSD was somewhere near .8590 (which is also 15 minute resistance).
Note that 15 minute SK resistance. It is risky to enter short right at resistance. Besides, we want to buy retracements, so there was a dip after that, placing a higher low on the chart. We could buy that dip, on 15 minute or perhaps 5 minute charts. We would have to do some 5 min Fib levels to find SK there etc. The 15 minute chart crossed up at .8595 area back at resistance again! This is a difficult place to enter, at resistance, but it is a rally off a retracement. I’m not sure I would have taken that entry myself.
If we enter long on that dip, there is risk until AUDUSD can exceed the 15 min SK resistance at .8590 . We have to accept that risk and possibly exit if there is a TRSI cross down. Fortunately there was no TRSI cross down there (almost was!), so the discomfort paid off with a rally up to .8630 for a profit exit on this 15 minute chart.
It was not a tidy setup Cal, so don’t feel bad if you missed it or took a small loss. Perhaps my post helps with analysis for future trades?
Originally posted by “Cal”; Fri Sep 11, 2009 5:47 am
Click image to enlarge
Hi Neal,
I legged into a long on the AUDUSD with an average price of .8574. Legged in because I was not convinced of the 60min TRSI x-up at the .8560 area and off the 40 line. I legged out at an average of .863. Nice trade but .8650-.8660 is too much resistance for now
Attached is current chart showing support at .8612 shorter term and the.8560 area still has longer term support. Any thoughts in this area?
Cal
P.S. You can see TRSI X-up entry 60 min chart on earlier post to this topic.
Originally posted by “FibMaster”; Fri Sep 11, 2009 5:58 am
I see you posted a reply while I was composing mine. Good job on the profits!
About the new chart, there is support, if you plan on trading the consolidation. Daily bias is up, so I’d prefer longs to shorts, but 4 hour and 60 minute charts show clear consolidation right now. Scalp maybe on support, exit quickly at resistance?
Trading is better in a strong trend though.
Originally posted by “FibMaster”; Fri Sep 11, 2009 7:56 am
OK 5 minute chart is good, your entry would have been better. Same concern for resistance, and you would have to stay with a higher trend to ride out the retracement (possible add to positions as you did).
Originally posted by “Steve”; Fri Sep 11, 2009 8:37 am
Click image to enlarge
Neal,
I just now took profit at my projected target objective 8662. 100 pips. Slowest of all trades from yesterday, but that’s OK, as the trade still followed all “rules of engagement” 
All TRSI’s 60m and higher now flat, with Daily TRSI lower than its previous high, so maybe exhausted now.
Steve
