CHF/JPY Mid Term 26 Oct 2009
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Originally posted by “Lifesong”; Sun Oct 25, 2009 11:24 pm
Looks like potential double top formed on Daily around 91.40-50 and Daily TRSI is extremely close to 75 level (see chart). On 4H TRSI crossed down and first SK support is @ 89.80. Taking these aspect into account I believe a high probability risk/reward trade could emminate from this.
Even though Daily TRSI is still heading up, the 4H crossed down and lower SLSH pattern must still follow. It’s now just after 06:15 GMT and I’ve entered a premature risky trade @ 91.25 with SL @ 91.75 (above previous SH) and my first profit target is 90 level, because of SK support @ 89.80. I realise that confirmation of lower SLSH on 4H must follow, but I am comfortable with risk of 50 pips and profit potential of 125 pips.
Any comments are appreciated and I’ll follow the trade during the early part of the week.
Originally posted by “Kim”; Mon Oct 26, 2009 1:38 am
Hi Lifesong,
That’s a good shorting opportunity for double top formation with 4hrly TRSI trend down and a strong SK support @89.80 (also a previous resistance). I short @91.27, SL 91.80, target 90.00.
Regards,
Kim
Originally posted by “FibMaster”; Mon Oct 26, 2009 4:55 am
I see lower swing highs, but 91.00 is still supporting. LHLL below there would have better odds, though a worse entry price.
60 minute chart attached, consolidating.
Originally posted by “Kim”; Tue Oct 27, 2009 7:35 am
Hi Lifesong and Neal,
Thanks! I’ve just exited the shorting trade @90.00 for 127 pips!
Regards,
Kim
Originally posted by “Kim”; Tue Oct 27, 2009 7:44 am
Hi Neal,
Can you pls illustrate how to find the next possible shorting entry based on this chart as the 1hrly chart has show a LH LL(see 1hrly chart)? Daily, 4hrly and 1hrly TRSI all cross down but it has reached the SK Support @89.80. Do you think there is another shorting opportunity?
Regards,
Kim
Originally posted by “FibMaster”; Tue Oct 27, 2009 8:35 am
Wow great trade! Turns out your early entry really paid off, and a later entry would not really have had a chance.
Originally posted by “Lifesong”; Tue Oct 27, 2009 9:35 pm
Hi Neal & Kim
I’m still live with my trade, because 4h TRSI is still heading down strongly and will start to apply some caution. On the 4h I notice next SK support @ 88.63-82 and will probably lock in 50% of my profits for 200+ pip gain if it seems that a short term bounce is developing. The remainder of the trade I’ll move my stop to just above current SK resistance on 60min which is currently located @ 90.05, but it could change if price heads lower some more. My objective with the second portion is to wait for possible break of 88.60 level, because on Daily the first noticeable SK support is @ 87.70 level.
I attach my charts and any comments or suggestions are welcome.
Originally posted by “Lifesong”; Wed Oct 28, 2009 8:59 am
Hi Kim & Neal,
Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this trade.
Some stalling of price on 15 & 60 min charts and I closed my trade @ 89.00 for a 225 pip winner! The reason for this is that price is stalling and not much happened over the last few hours, but more importantly my broker charges triple the overnight charges on a Wednesday evening and I don’t want it to erode my profits unnecessarily. I am also taking a long weekend break and would rather enjoy the good fortunes than being left in the open, because I won’t be able to trade till early next week.
It could be that price is still heading down on Daily, but I expect a bounce on 4h, because TRSI is close to 25 level and possibly signalling exhaustion. I’d rather bank the profits than be greedy and I’m happy with the way the trade turned out. Perhaps a new short entry will be presented later, but if I’m not around I hope you catch it!!
Originally posted by “FibMaster”; Tue Nov 10, 2009 7:11 am
The chart did go down somewhat after your exit, but it was volatile and rallied strongly. Excellent trading, both of you. Big gains, very impressive, congratulations!








