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[Previous entry: "August Performance Record"] [Main Index] [Next entry: "NABI Exit for -.19, 1.6%"]

09/16/2004 Archived Entry: "Fibmaster's Daily Update"

Below is what I said about the indexes last week:

Diamonds:
QQQ pushed through the resistance level at $34.50, the next one is at $35.77/$36.00 (SK on daily)
DIA has a resistance area similar to SPY, up at $103/$104, so look for a potential stall and turn there.
SPY has SK resistance at $113.00/$113.25 and also the top of a downward sloping weekly channel in that area.
Because of these resistance levels, this is a really dumb time to take long-term LONG trades (in general). So be careful.
S&P perspective (E-Mini)
The E-Mini has a huge down-sloping channel on the weekly chart, since the high of 1163.75 in March 2004. There is a significant resistance area near the top of that channel at 1124/1125. A turn down at that area could be the start of a move to the bottom of the channel. The E-mini is currently a little above that area, we must watch to see if it returns.

Was that right on?? Or what??

Here is my update as of today Sept 16th before the markets are open.
The markets have shown some resistance at these levels, putting big fat red bars on the daily chart. Now the test is whether this resistance level can stall the rally, and the weekly down trend-line can hold. We may see some consolidation at these levels, or perhaps even some great shorting opportunities for the near-term. The markets have some intra-day support levels to break before a down-move can begin.

Intra-day traders, keep your eyes on the bear camp, and jump in on the short side if they get excited.

Longer term (daily and up) it is too early to call this a top, though it is a potential top. Switch from a bullish mentality to a cautious potential bear. But don’t be too aggressive until the market confirms a new direction.

Neal Hughes, FibMaster at http://www.FibMarkets.com, is a widely respected expert on Fibonacci Analysis. Neal has been in the markets for over 20 years, and has distilled what he has learned into a complete trading methodology that maximizes gains and controls risk which he publishes in his newsletter, ProfitPoint. He is also the author of several universally acclaimed Video Seminars on his website. For those new to Fibonacci analysis, Neal provides FREE Fibonacci lessons, available here: http://www.fibmarkets.com/cgi-local/aefs/signup.cgi
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