Tuesday, January 29, 2008
The daily chart shows a major down-trend (starting November) that was broken to the upside in January.
The 4-hour chart shows a strong rally to an SK resistance level at 198.90 to 199.10
Now the decision is whether to trade this chart long based on the breakout of the long-term down-trend, or short because of the current resistance.
Let's look at both options. First the downward shorting option.
On the 4-hour chart I've drawn a supporting trend-line that needs to break before we can do any shorting. Shorts will have to be lower time-frames, below 60 minute, and only if the chart puts in consecutive lower swing highs and lower swing lows.
Also, there are some SK support levels at 198.50, 198.05, and also a little above 197.00 to 197.25 . Those support levels can be profit targets for intra-day short scalps, and may even be strong enough to support for a decent rally (watch out). If the chart can get below 197, it is even weaker, for more shorting.
For the upside possibility, for long trades, GBP/USD needs to rally above 199.00 and put in higher swing lows and swing highs intra-day. Then we can buy dips at Fibonacci levels, as long as the rally continues.
With these parameters, we are able to monitor this chart for opportunities in real-time.
Comments/suggestions/questions are welcome. Post your own charts, or your own trade suggestions too. We all benefit from the discussion. Discuss this chart on the TraderZine forum click here.
(At some future point these update files will be removed due to space restrictions)
Posted by FibMaster @ 09:46 AM PST [Link]
Friday, January 25, 2008
Bill wrote:
> Mr hughes. In your Fib Videos you say to not mix support with resistance fib levels.
> I just watched a trade where the trader mixed resistance fibs with support fibs.
> Is there any validity to what he did because it worked out?
> Please advise. Bill
Bill,
Resist the urge to prove them wrong, to prove yourself right.
He/she is confused. Don't argue, let them go with it. The more people get it wrong, the better for us. Encourage them! You win when they think they are right.
Some people believe that support becomes resistance and vice-versa. There are "experts" who will perpetuate that myth without realizing how unreliable it is. (see breakout note below)
This is probably why that trader thinks they should use that technique. While this works sometimes, it is not automatic and far from reliable. It adds confusion, reduces clarity, and generates profits for someone else.
Have you ever seen a breakout fail? About a zillion times a day, right? Breakouts fail very often (majority of the time). Those are examples of support/resistance not being reliable when reversed.
Shhhhh! Support becomes resistance, resistance becomes support. (wink)
-Neal.
Posted by FibMaster @ 12:44 PM PST [Link]
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Shane wrote:
> Hello Neal...
>
> I have to say that the video lessons offered by you are, without a doubt, one of the finest learning tools I have seen. I started with the Fib set and have gone on to purchase all those you offer.
>
> Quick question in regards to Forex if you have a moment. I have watched your video updates...which are handy by themselves...however I would like to know which time frames you have found to be the best to not only confirm the current trend...but also to manage entry/exit positions.
>
> If you have the time, I would appreciate your input.
>
> Regards,
> Shane
Thanks for the comments Shane.
The time-frame for you is really a matter of personal preference. Some traders live in the 5-minute world, others in the daily world. However, my recommendation is that you trade in the direction of the trend that exists in the next higher time-frame. So if you are trading 4-hour charts, use a daily trend etc.
-Neal.
Posted by FibMaster @ 07:06 AM PST [Link]
Everyone likes easy money, so here is a great trade setup. The EUR/CHF chart has a clear trend with obvious trades setting up for intraday traders. Of course there are risks, but if you follow this video you will know when to get out of this trade. See this update for specifics;
Comments/suggestions/questions are welcome. Post your own charts, or your own trade suggestions too. We all benefit from the discussion. Discuss this chart on the TraderZine forum click here.
Click here for FibMaster's chart update.
(At some future point these update files will be removed due to space restrictions)
Posted by FibMaster @ 05:53 AM PST [Link]
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Is it time to panic? Did you panic too early? Stay calm and panic later? The markets are at a significant support level now. The question is whether the support is sufficient to bounce the market, and how high can is bounce. See this update for details.
Comments/suggestions/questions are welcome. Post your own charts, or your own trade suggestions too. We all benefit from the discussion. Discuss this chart on the TraderZine forum click here.
Click here for FibMaster's chart update.
-Neal.
Posted by FibMaster @ 11:21 AM PST [Link]
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
New seminars are scheduled for January-March. Most of them only have a few seats left, so book right away to avoid disappointment. If a seminar sells out, I'll try to add another to accommodate you, or will refund that seminar cost to you.
There is a new seminar topic "Combining patterns with Fibonacci". I'm still finalizing the charts for this seminar, it should be a revealing and very beneficial session !
See the seminar schedule and topic outlines here;
http://www.fibmarkets.com/pro_seminars/index.html
Posted by FibMaster @ 04:58 PM PST [Link]
Monday, January 14, 2008
From the post below on January 12th. "There is a good chance that the Euro turns down soon."
Not that I know what I'm talking about or anything, see attached daily chart. Today marks a strong down-move. Not sure whether it will go to 1.44 but just wanted to show off.
Click here for latest EUR/USD chart.
My prior comments about EUR being bullish above 1.50 and bearish below 1.44 still stand. Based on todays action, I lean towards shorting rallies intraday. As long as the 60-minute or 4 hour chart makes lower swing highs and lows. But beware intraday support at 1.46 and 1.44
Comments/suggestions/questions are welcome. Post your own charts, or your own trade suggestions too. We all benefit from the discussion. Discuss this chart on the TraderZine forum click here.
-Neal.
Posted by FibMaster @ 09:42 PM PST [Link]
Do you want to know how to trade USD/JPY tomorrow and the next day Intraday? Want to know whether to short or go long? This chart update tells you how to plan your trading;
Click here for FibMaster's chart update.
(At some future point these update files will be removed due to space restrictions)
Posted by FibMaster @ 05:57 PM PST [Link]
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Attached is the daily Euro chart, with a key resistance and support level. Click for EURO chart
There is a good chance that the Euro turns down soon. If it puts in a swing high below 1.50 then a double-top is the most likely scenario, with a move back down to 1.44 quite achievable.
The Euro needs to break through the support/resistance channel for the market to establish a new direction. This is useful knowledge - if you let the market point the way, you know how to trade it.
If there is a significant retracement, and the 1.44 support level breaks, this chart turns very bearish and could provide great shorting. Above the 1.50 resistance area, we can trade more aggressively to the upside as the bulls are in control.
Also, for DiNapoli fans, check your weekly Euro chart for a Double-RePo look-alike pattern (potential).
Comments/suggestions/questions are welcome. Post your own charts, or your own trade suggestions too. We all benefit from the discussion. Discuss this chart on the TraderZine forum click here.
Posted by FibMaster @ 03:31 PM PST [Link]
Martin wrote:
>
> I have a question on stop placement from your video on stop placement/money management.
> You briefly mention about trailing stops in fast moving market but dont give
> an example. - e.g. when its safe to move stop to breakeven, trailing stop 1 FIB level
> behind price action, trailing stop at the low of the previous time bar, etc.
> Can you comment on this?
>
> Many thanks,
> Martin.
Martin,
The answer is that this is subjective. If you want to lock in profits in a fast market, for partial of full exit, you can have a trailing stop. If you are patient and still within your trading plan, you can retain your normal stops, risk giving some profit back to the market, though have the possibility of a continued run.
-Neal.
Posted by FibMaster @ 03:29 PM PST [Link]
Thursday, January 10, 2008
I'm hosting a free FOREX chat room tomorrow, Friday January 11th.
We will cover several FOREX charts, Fibonacci trading techniques, best entry and exit options, and your questions. It will be a fun and rewarding session, and we may even make some great trades.
To register, you must post a message in reply to my invitation in the TradeZine FOREX forum.
Go to the FOREX forum here, to register for the chat session;
Click for TraderZine FOREX forum
Posted by FibMaster @ 09:04 AM PST [Link]
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
After a break lasting a few years, I'm considering the possibility of a chat room again. Only this time it would only be for an hour a day (possibly stretch to 2 hours, maybe even 3 on a really good day). And It would operate for one week at a time, perhaps one week a month, or every alternate week for a while.
I really enjoy a chat room in short doses. It's great for teaching in a more interactive way, for getting your feedback, and verifying that you have gained the knowledge that you want.
Limiting it to 1 or 2 hours a day, one week at a time would avoid the feeling that I have a job (dreadful), and still give me the freedom that I enjoy so much (that's why I trade).
We would view each other's charts in a webinar format online, in real-time. And we would have voice communication.
There are two questions that need to be settled for this to go ahead..
1) The chat session needs to occur when most of us are awake and available. What time of day works best for you (tell me your time-zone too).
2) We need to choose a voice chat service. We could talk by voice, via a free chat like yahoo, msn, or paltalk. An alternative for best voice service would be a phone conference room, but then you might have long-distance phone charges. Here is the second question; Are you OK with a phone conference room, or what voice chat service do you prefer?
This chat workshop will be very rewarding for participants. We will only want serious students/traders in this chat, so there will be a fee, with a low-cost 1-day trial.
If you are interested, please send your answers to the two questions above. Send them to me here
neal AT(@) fibmarkets DOT(.) com
-Neal.
Posted by FibMaster @ 08:53 AM PST [Link]
Monday, January 7, 2008
CHF is prime for some great trading. The chart looks ready to rally, but watch out, there is key resistance overhead! How this chart behaves at resistance could give a boost to your trading account. See this update for specifics;
Click here for FibMaster's chart update.
(At some future point these update files will be removed due to space restrictions)
Posted by FibMaster @ 10:00 AM PST [Link]
