Thursday, September 30, 2004
LIFC
Sept 22 - has SK resistance $9.75-$10, has arrived there, scalpers consider shorting intra-day. Swing traders need to see intra-day support at $9.25 give way for a bigger move to materialize..
Sept 27 - That (.25 support has moved up to $9.40 due to recent chart activity. Scalpers are making $$ on a move down today.
Update Sept 30 - Intra-day short scalps did well, and the opportunities still exits unless resistance at $10 gives way. Swing shorts are safer if $9.40 support fails.
ADI
Sept 16 - has two SK resistance areas for potential shorting: $37.75 and $38.75, watch this chart for a down-turn.
Sept 22 - ADI rallied to the higher SK resistance level.. Intra-day support at $37.75 approximately needs to give way for a down-move to proceed.
Sept 27 - ADI tests that support $37.75 and looks like it will break. Bears are taking over. This chart looks good for shorting intra-day rallies at Fibonacci levels.
Update Sept 30 - Support held, and ADI tries another run at the prior swing high of September.
PSFT
Sept 22 - Scalpers may consider buying if PSFT retraces to support at $18.50, but be careful with the $20.75/$21.00 area, could stall there so consider that a good exit area if there is resistance.
Sept 27 - PSFT didn't retrace to the optimum support area, and rallied without us. Watch that resistance area, if $21.00 doesn't hold, this chart gets really bullish.
Update Sept 30 - No change, watch $21.00
AMZN
Sept 22 - weekly chart looks like it could work it's way up to $50.00, but there is some resistance at $45.00 to be overcome first.
Sept 27 - The weekly up-trend has weakened since my last comment. There is a support level at $40.00 that needs to hold, for the bulls to stay in this chart. A sustained move below $40 would negate the weekly up-trend.
Update Sept 30 - $40.00 support is holding. Possible long trade intra-day for scalpers, up to the $45.00 level.
ORCL
Update Sept 30 - Watch for resistance SK on daily 11.77, bulls beware, possible resistance there.
RIMM
Update Sept 30 - Bullish up to $81.80, weekly pattern, though it could be bumpy getting there on the daily chart.
PFE
Update Sept 30 - PFE bounced today, but has some SK resistance overhead at $31.50 and $32.75.. Look for a possible short trade at one of those levels.
EBAY
Update Sept 30 - There is a double-top pattern on the weekly chart. If the daily chart pulls back below $86.50, there could be a panic. And we all like a good panic.
NXTP
Update Sept 30 - NXTP rallies on earnings, this could be a buy on retracements if it breaks above prior highs of June.
Neal Hughes, FibMaster at http://www.FibMarkets.com, is a widely respected expert on Fibonacci Analysis. Neal has been in the markets for over 20 years, and has distilled what he has learned into a complete trading methodology that maximizes gains and controls risk which he publishes in his newsletter, ProfitPoint. He is also the author of several universally acclaimed Video Seminars on his web-site. For those new to Fibonacci analysis, Neal provides FREE Fibonacci lessons, available here: http://www.fibmarkets.com/cgi-local/aefs/signup.cgi
Please read our disclaimer at http://www.fibmarkets.com/disclaimer.html
Posted by Admin @ 03:24 PM PST [Link]
click here for ADI2 chart
We were short ADI from 9/28 (half position) at $37.47 EOD. It rallied against us today so we exit at $38.64 EOD for a loss of -1.17, 3.1%.
click here for ProfitPoint newsletter (38k file)
Posted by Admin @ 05:45 AM PST [Link]
Wednesday, September 29, 2004
click here for DPTR chart
9/28 We were short DPTR from 9/22 at $11.82 EOD. It rallied against us so we exit today at $12.35 EOD for -.53, 4.4%.
click for ProfitPoint newsletter(71k file)
Posted by Admin @ 05:23 AM PST [Link]
Tuesday, September 28, 2004
Sector Update:
IYR = real-estate ETF
Sept 15th - Possible double-top on the weekly chart. Daily chart turning down now. Bears look out for support at $106.00 and even stronger support at $102.50
Sept 20th - Those support levels are still valid. We really need to see the 106.00 level break for this to be a top. Until then, this chart is still in rally mode (daily) or at worst consolidation mode.
Sept 23rd - Looking like consolidation for now. If $106 support breaks, we have a top and permission to short rallies.
Update Sept 28 - No change in my outlook. If 106 breaks, then short down to 102 area is the play.
IBB = NASD Biotech
Sept 15th - The biotech sector has rallied from the Aug 9th low of $61.22 to a recent high of $71.35. Why is this significant? This sector is now in a resistance zone! IBB has SK resistance on the daily chart at $70.30 to $70.94, so you bulls should look for profit exits on signs of resistance. The IBB weekly trend is up, but recovering from the March-04 to Aug-04 downtrend. The current resistance could stall this market in the near-term. Stocks to watch in this sector: Amgen Inc, Biogen Idec Inc, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd SPDR, Genzyme Corp-General Division, Gilead Sciences Inc, Chiron Corp.
Short term traders may consider scalping with the bears on signs of weakness.
Update Sept 20th - IBB has rallied a little above the $70.30/$70.94 resistance zone (say $71.00 approx), but can still fall back. The next higher resistance is $76.00 so bullish till there if the $71.00 resistance level doesn't hold.
Sept 23 - IBB issued a sell trigger on the daily chart yesterday. This gives traders permission to short rallies intra-day, and to look for short entries on longer time-frame swing charts. Intra-day scalpers will take profits on intra-day support. Swing traders, exit shorts if the daily chart triggers and exit, or can't remain below the SK resistance zone.
Update Sept 28 - IBB has intraday resistance at $69.75 today, for a possible short scalp entry. The daily chart is still in selling mode, down to support in the $67.50 to $68.25 area where we could see support.
XLF = SPDR Financial
Sept 20th - For DiNapoli pattern fans, the monthly XLF chart just completed a "bread and butter" or "B&B" pattern with a profit-objective of $29.18.. Where does it go from here? The Daily and weekly charts look week, with short-term support at about $28.50 for the scalping bears. Longer term there is support (weekly chart) at $26.75 and even stronger support down at $26.00 if it should get that low. If you prefer to trade the XLF components, look at Citigroup "C".
Sept 23 - The XLF chart has dropped to the first key support level on the daily chart at $28.50, so intraday bears should consider covering on signs of support. There is weekly support down at $26.75, but we will probably have a short-term rally before XLF can get that far down. Looking at the daily chart, I'd say that we want to short financial stocks on rallies to resistance. Where that resistance is can only be calculated once XLF finds some support and begins a mini-rally.
Update Sept 28 - The XLF daily chart is showing signs of support now, a little under the $28.50 projected area. A rally could give good shorting opportunities in the future, perhaps in the $28.75area (valid only if current levels hold for support).
SMH = Semiconductor Holders Trust
Sept 23 - This sector has been ruled by bears since January this year, where it topped out at about $45.00.. There is some hope, for those poor "buy-and-hold" investors, but it's not that great.. The weekly chart for SMH has some support at $27.75/$28.25, so we may see some buying at those levels.
I'm not too optimistic though. There is a huge down-sloping channel on the weekly chart, with a bottom currently at about $27.75 and a top at about $34.25. In addition, the weekly chart has significant resistance at the $35.00 level (SK resistance). So the upside is at about $35.00 on my chart.
That gives enough room for near-term traders to take a respectable profit, but not for the sector to recover. I would not be surprised to see this chart consolidate in the $27.75 area to $35.00 area. This is a longer term weekly chart. So intra-day and on an end-of-day chart there are profit opportunities in that range of $27.75 to $35.00. Suggestion: Look to buy semiconductor stocks when SMH is near the lower level $27.75, and look for shorting opportunities near the upper boundary $35.00.
Update Sept 28 - SMH didn't rally much, and looks like it could get to support at $27.75 or a little higher. Not much trading opportunity yet.
Neal Hughes, FibMaster at http://www.FibMarkets.com, is a widely respected expert on Fibonacci Analysis. Neal has been in the markets for over 20 years, and has distilled what he has learned into a complete trading methodology that maximizes gains and controls risk which he publishes in his newsletter, ProfitPoint. He is also the author of several universally acclaimed Video Seminars on his website. For those new to Fibonacci analysis, Neal provides FREE Fibonacci lessons, available here: http://www.fibmarkets.com/cgi-local/aefs/signup.cgi
Please read our disclaimer at http://www.fibmarkets.com/disclaimer.html
Posted by Admin @ 10:09 AM PST [Link]
Monday, September 27, 2004
9/27
LIFC
Sept 22 - has SK resistance $9.75-$10, has arrived there, scalpers consider shorting intra-day. Swing traders need to see intra-day support at $9.25 give way for a bigger move to materialize..
Update Sept 27 - That (.25 support has moved up to $9.40 due to recent chart activity. Scalpers are making $$ on a move down today.
ADI
Sept 16 - has two SK resistance areas for potential shorting: $37.75 and $38.75, watch this chart for a down-turn.
Sept 22 - ADI rallied to the higher SK resistance level.. Intra-day support at $37.75 approximately needs to give way for a down-move to proceed.
Update Sept 27 - ADI tests that support $37.75 and looks like it will break. Bears are taking over. This chart looks good for shorting intra-day rallies at Fibonacci levels.
PSFT
Sept 22 - Scalpers may consider buying if PSFT retraces to support at $18.50, but be careful with the $20.75/$21.00 area, could stall there so consider that a good exit area if there is resistance.
Update Sept 27 - PSFT didn't retrace to the optimum support area, and rallied without us. Watch that resistance area, if $21.00 doesn't hold, this chart gets really bullish.
CAM
Sept 22 - near weekly resistance trend-line $53.00, watch for possible turn down on the daily chart. There is also a supporting trend-line across the bottoms on a the weekly chart, lower down (say $48.00). Could roll over and begin a move down to the lower trend-line.
Update Sept 27 - Not much resistance at $53.00, there is a higher resistance level at $55.00. The high one may hold. If not, this chart can easily go to $60.00
AMZN
Sept 22 - weekly chart looks like it could work it's way up to $50.00, but there is some resistance at $45.00 to be overcome first.
Update Sept 27 - The weekly up-trend has weakened since my last comment. There is a support level at $40.00 that needs to hold, for the bulls to stay in this chart. A sustained move below $40 would negate the weekly up-trend.
Neal Hughes, FibMaster at http://www.FibMarkets.com, is a widely respected expert on Fibonacci Analysis. Neal has been in the markets for over 20 years, and has distilled what he has learned into a complete trading methodology that maximizes gains and controls risk which he publishes in his newsletter, ProfitPoint. He is also the author of several universally acclaimed Video Seminars on his web-site. For those new to Fibonacci analysis, Neal provides FREE Fibonacci lessons, available here: http://www.fibmarkets.com/cgi-local/aefs/signup.cgi
Please read our disclaimer at http://www.fibmarkets.com/disclaimer.html
Posted by Admin @ 07:32 AM PST [Link]
Sunday, September 26, 2004
9/26 In response to an email question, Fibmaster wrote:
Don,
If you are trading the 5 min chart, try to stick with the 30 min trend
(MACD/TRSI/whatever).
You can defy that rule if 1) the daily trend is in the direction you
want, and 2) you are entering at a strong Fib level. So you want SK in
your favor, and not just a weenie mini-one.
On the other hand, look at it this way. Instead of trading the 5 min
chart, you could be trading the 30 min chart, in the direction of the
daily chart. So then you must tolerate bigger swings against you, watch
the 30 min chart not the 5 min chart. Further stops...
Post this in chat if others are there, this is an interesting topic.
-Neal.
Tell us if you would like more information on this topic.
Posted by Admin @ 02:44 PM PST [Link]
click here for ARIA1 chart
We were short ARIA from 9/22 at $5.98 EOD. Today we exit at $6.64 EOD for a small loss of -.66, 11%.
click here for ProfitPoint newsletter (33k file)
Posted by Admin @ 02:28 PM PST [Link]
Friday, September 24, 2004
click here for BRCM chart
9/23 We were short BRCM from 9/22 at $28.23 EOD. We were whipsawed out today at $28.86 EOD for
-.63, 2.2%.
Posted by Admin @ 01:51 PM PST [Link]
9/24
Was this prophetic? In my Sept 21 Index update I said " Because of these resistance levels, this is a really dumb time to take long-term LONG trades." Look what has happened in 3 days! The markets have incurred major technical damage, and have been driven to significant support levels.
QQQ
Sept 21 -QQQ is testing resistance at $35.77/$36.00 SK on the daily chart.
Update Sept 24 - The SK resistance of $35.77/$36.00 held, causing a significant and quick retracement. Now we have to watch for support at $34.50. There is an SK level there on the daily chart, which should bring some buyers into the market. Scalpers may consider covering shorts there on signs of support. After that, a bounce could provide great short trades, let's see if we get one.
SPY
Sept 21 - SPY has SK resistance at $113.00/$113.25 and also the top of a downward sloping weekly channel in that area. Yesterday the S&P looked weaker then QQQ and actually dropped from that resistance level. We may see a rally in this chart intra-day, until the markets determine whether this resistance will hold. Consider scalping shorts on intra-day resistance.
Update Sept 24 - After stalling a the resistance level $113.25 (slightly above), Spy has now retraced to a support level. The daily chart has SK support at $111.00, so we can expect some support there. If it crashes though here, the markets will become extremely bearish! Scalpers may consider covering shorts intra-day near $111.00, and taking risky counter-trend longs intra-day. A bounce to Fib resistance could provide good short trades. I prefer short to long trades in this market, sell rallies.
DIA
Sept 21 - DIA has a resistance area similar to SPY, up at $103/$104, and has backed off of that level. If QQQ can get in line, the markets will top out and retrace downwards. Look to short rallies intra-day for scalp trades, but wait for resistance to manifest.
Update Sept 24 - Wow what a drop. The predicted $103/$104 resistance drove DIA down to $103.40 so far. There is an L6 support level at $100.30, though it is not as strong as an SK level. DIA may support her, especially if QQQ and SPY support at current levels. This chart screams "short the next rally" to me.
S&P (E-Mini)
Sept 21 - The E-Mini has a huge down-sloping channel on the weekly chart, since the high of 1163.75 in March 2004. There is a significant resistance area near the top of that channel at 1124/1125. The E-mini is currently a little above that area, we must watch to see if it returns. There is still a good chance of a roll-over here.
Update Sept 24 - The S&P obediently rolled over at the predicted level, near the top of the weekly channel. No I can't claim that I caused it, but I certainly warned of that probability. Now the question is "how far down can the markets go?". Over the long term, the bottom of the channel is around 1046.. That may sound scary, but it isn't really. Before then there will be many opportunities to buy and sell, especially intra-day. There is support on the daily chart at 1104/1105, so I would not be surprised to see a short-term rally from there.
Neal Hughes, FibMaster at http://www.FibMarkets.com, is a widely respected expert on Fibonacci Analysis. Neal has been in the markets for over 20 years, and has distilled what he has learned into a complete trading methodology that maximizes gains and controls risk which he publishes in his newsletter, ProfitPoint. He is also the author of several universally acclaimed Video Seminars on his website. For those new to Fibonacci analysis, Neal provides FREE Fibonacci lessons, available here: http://www.fibmarkets.com/cgi-local/aefs/signup.cgi
Please read our disclaimer at http://www.fibmarkets.com/disclaimer.html
Posted by Admin @ 10:43 AM PST [Link]
Thursday, September 23, 2004
9/23
Sector Update:
IYR = real-estate ETF
Sept 15th - Possible double-top on the weekly chart. Daily chart turning down now. Bears look out for support at $106.00 and even stronger support at $102.50
Update Sept 20th - Those support levels are still valid. We really need to see the 106.00 level break for this to be a top. Until then, this chart is still in rally mode (daily) or at worst consolidation mode.
Update Sept 23rd - Looking like consolidation for now. If $106 support breaks, we have a top and permission to short rallies.
IBB = NASD Biotech
Sept 15th - The biotech sector has rallied from the Aug 9th low of $61.22 to a recent high of $71.35. Why is this significant? This sector is now in a resistance zone! IBB has SK resistance on the daily chart at $70.30 to $70.94, so you bulls should look for profit exits on signs of resistance. The IBB weekly trend is up, but recovering from the March-04 to Aug-04 downtrend. The current resistance could stall this market in the near-term. Stocks to watch in this sector: Amgen Inc, Biogen Idec Inc, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd SPDR, Genzyme Corp-General Division, Gilead Sciences Inc, Chiron Corp.
Short term traders may consider scalping with the bears on signs of weakness.
Update Sept 20th - IBB has rallied a little above the $70.30/$70.94 resistance zone (say $71.00 approx), but can still fall back. The next higher resistance is $76.00 so bullish till there if the $71.00 resistance level doesn't hold.
Update Sept 23rd - IBB issued a sell trigger on the daily chart yesterday. This gives traders permission to short rallies intraday, and to look for short entries on longer time-frame swing charts. Intraday scalpers will take profits on intraday support. Swing traders, exit shorts if the daily chart triggers and exit, or can't remain below the SK resistance zone.
XLF = SPDR Financial
Sept 20th - For DiNapoli pattern fans, the monthly XLF chart just completed a "bread and butter" or "B&B" pattern with a profit-objective of $29.18.. Where does it go from here? The Daily and weekly charts look week, with short-term support at about $28.50 for the scalping bears. Longer term there is support (weekly chart) at $26.75 and even stronger support down at $26.00 if it should get that low. If you prefer to trade the XLF components, look at Citigroup "C".
Update Sept 23rd - The XLF chart has dropped to the first key support level on the daily chart at $28.50, so intraday bears should consider covering on sighs of support. There is weekly support down at $26.75, but we will probably have a short-term rally before XLF can get that far down. Looking at the daily chart, I'd say that we want to short financial stocks on rallies to resistance. Where that resistance is can only be calculated once XLF finds some support and begins a mini-rally.
SMH = Semiconductor Holders Trust
Sept 23rd - This sector has been ruled by bears since January this year, where it topped out at about $45.00.. There is some hope, for those poor "buy-and-hold" investors, but it's not that great.. The weekly chart for SMH has some support at $27.75/$28.25, so we may see some buying at those levels.
I'm not too optimistic though. There is a huge down-sloping channel on the weekly chart, with a bottom currently at about $27.75 and a top at about $34.25. In addition, the weekly chart has significant resistance at the $35.00 level (SK resistance). So the upside is at about $35.00 on my chart.
That gives enough room for near-term traders to take a respectable profit, but not for the sector to recover. I would not be surprised to see this chart consolidate in the $27.75 area to $35.00 area. This is a longer term weekly chart. So intra-day and on an end-of-day chart there are profit opportunities in that range of $27.75 to $35.00.
Suggestion: Look to buy semiconductor stocks when SMH is near the lower level $27.75, and look for shorting opportunities near the upper boundary $35.00.
Neal Hughes, FibMaster at http://www.FibMarkets.com, is a widely respected expert on Fibonacci Analysis. Neal has been in the markets for over 20 years, and has distilled what he has learned into a complete trading methodology that maximizes gains and controls risk which he publishes in his newsletter, ProfitPoint. He is also the author of several universally acclaimed Video Seminars on his website. For those new to Fibonacci analysis, Neal provides FREE Fibonacci lessons, available here: http://www.fibmarkets.com/cgi-local/aefs/signup.cgi
Please read our disclaimer at http://www.fibmarkets.com/disclaimer.html
Posted by Admin @ 06:29 AM PST [Link]
Wednesday, September 22, 2004
NVDA is removed from our watch-list, just not doing what we would want..
LIFC has SK resistance $9.75-$10, has arrived there, scalpers consider shorting intra-day. Swing traders need to see intra-day support at $9.25 give way for a bigger move to materialize..
ADI has two SK resistance areas for potential shorting: $37.75 and $38.75, watch this chart for a down-turn. ADI rallied to the higher SK resistance level.. Intra-day support at $37.75 approximately needs to give way for a down-move to proceed.
PSFT Scalpers may consider buying if PSFT retraces to support at $18.50, but be careful with the $20.75/$21.00 area, could stall there so consider that a good exit area if there is resistance.
CAM near weekly resistance trend-line $53.00, watch for possible turn down on the daily chart. There is also a supporting trend-line across the bottoms on a the weekly chart, lower down (say $48.00). Could roll over and begin a move down to the lower trend-line.
AMZN weekly chart looks like it could work it's way up to $50.00, but there is some resistance at $45.00 to be overcome first.
AMAT daily chart has gone bullish. careful though, there is SK resistance at $18.25.. If that doesn't stop the market, it is bullish up to about $20.00 .. Some possibilities there. Buy intra-day dips up to $18.25 area and above there up to $20.00 if it doesn't resist at $18.25.
Neal Hughes, FibMaster at http://www.FibMarkets.com, is a widely respected expert on Fibonacci Analysis. Neal has been in the markets for over 20 years, and has distilled what he has learned into a complete trading methodology that maximizes gains and controls risk which he publishes in his newsletter, ProfitPoint. He is also the author of several universally acclaimed Video Seminars on his web-site. For those new to Fibonacci analysis, Neal provides FREE Fibonacci lessons, available here: http://www.fibmarkets.com/cgi-local/aefs/signup.cgi
Please read our disclaimer at http://www.fibmarkets.com/disclaimer.html
Posted by Admin @ 07:56 AM PST [Link]
click here for MER1 chart
9/21 We were short MER from 9/17 at $51.45 EOD. Today it bounced hard against us and took us out at $52.97 for a loss of -1.52, 2.9%.
click for ProfitPoint newsletter (68k file)
Posted by Admin @ 06:11 AM PST [Link]
click here for FE chart
9/21 We were long FE from $41.46 (average of 9/14 at $41.36 (1st half) and 9/16 at $41.57, 2nd half). Today we exit at $41.23 for a small loss of -.23, less than 1%.
click for ProfitPoint newsletter(41k file)
Posted by Admin @ 05:49 AM PST [Link]
Tuesday, September 21, 2004
QQQ Is testing resistance at $35.77/$36.00 SK on the daily chart.
SPY has SK resistance at $113.00/$113.25 and also the top of a downward sloping weekly channel in that area. Yesterday the S&P looked weaker then QQQ and actually dropped from that resistance level. We may see a rally in this chart intra-day, until the markets determine whether this resistance will hold. Consider scalping shorts on intra-day resistance.
DIA has a resistance area similar to SPY, up at $103/$104, and has backed off of that level. If QQQ can get in line, the markets will top out and retrace downwards. Look to short rallies intra-day for scalp trades, but wait for resistance to manifest.
Because of these resistance levels, this is a really dumb time to take long-term LONG trades (in general). So be careful until the resistance is broken.
S&P perspective (E-Mini)
The E-Mini has a huge down-sloping channel on the weekly chart, since the high of 1163.75 in March 2004. There is a significant resistance area near the top of that channel at 1124/1125. The E-mini is currently a little above that area, we must watch to see if it returns. There is still a good chance of a roll-over here.
The markets have shown some resistance at these levels, putting big fat red bars on the daily chart. Now the test is whether this resistance level can stall the rally, and the weekly down trend-line can hold. We may see some consolidation at these levels, or perhaps even some great shorting opportunities for the near-term. The markets have some intra-day support levels to break before a down-move can begin.
The S&P E-Mini has support at 1120 that needs to break, until then intraday short scalps are ok, but there is still a danger of consolidation or resumed rally.
Intra-day traders, keep your eyes on the bear camp, and jump in on the short side if they get excited.
Longer term (daily and higher) it is too early to call this a top, though it is a potential top. Switch from a bullish mentality to a cautious potential bear. But dont be too aggressive until the market confirms a new direction.
Neal Hughes, FibMaster at http://www.FibMarkets.com, is a widely respected expert on Fibonacci Analysis. Neal has been in the markets for over 20 years, and has distilled what he has learned into a complete trading methodology that maximizes gains and controls risk which he publishes in his newsletter, ProfitPoint. He is also the author of several universally acclaimed Video Seminars on his website. For those new to Fibonacci analysis, Neal provides FREE Fibonacci lessons, available here: http://www.fibmarkets.com/cgi-local/aefs/signup.cgi
Please read our disclaimer at http://www.fibmarkets.com/disclaimer.html
Posted by Admin @ 06:40 AM PST [Link]
Monday, September 20, 2004
Sector Update:
IYR = real-estate ETF
Sept 15th - Possible double-top on the weekly chart. Daily chart turning down now. Bears look out for support at $106.00 and even stronger support at $102.50
Update Sept 20th - Those support levels are still valid. We really need to see the 106.00 level break for this to be a top. Until then, this chart is still in rally mode (daily) or at worst consolidation mode.
IBB = NASD Biotech
Sept 15th - The biotech sector has rallied from the Aug 9th low of $61.22 to a recent high of $71.35. Why is this significant? This sector is now in a resistance zone! IBB has SK resistance on the daily chart at $70.30 to $70.94, so you bulls should look for profit exits on signs of resistance. The IBB weekly trend is up, but recovering from the March-04 to Aug-04 downtrend. The current resistance could stall this market in the near-term. Stocks to watch in this sector: Amgen Inc, Biogen Idec Inc, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd SPDR, Genzyme Corp-General Division, Gilead Sciences Inc, Chiron Corp.
Short term traders may consider scalping with the bears on signs of weakness.
Update Sept 20th - IBB has rallied a little above the $70.30/$70.94 resistance zone (say $71.00 approx), but can still fall back. The next higher resistance is $76.00 so bullish till there if the $71.00 resistance level doesn't hold.
XLF = SPDR Financial
For DiNapoli pattern fans, the monthly XLF chart just completed a "bread and butter" or "B&B" pattern with a profit-objective of $29.18.. Where does it go from here? The Daily and weekly charts look week, with short-term support at about $28.50 for the scalping bears. Longer term there is support (weekly chart) at $26.75 and even stronger support down at $26.00 if it should get that low. If you prefer to trade the XLF components, look at Citigroup "C".
Neal Hughes, FibMaster at http://www.FibMarkets.com, is a widely respected expert on Fibonacci Analysis. Neal has been in the markets for over 20 years, and has distilled what he has learned into a complete trading methodology that maximizes gains and controls risk which he publishes in his newsletter, ProfitPoint. He is also the author of several universally acclaimed Video Seminars on his website. For those new to Fibonacci analysis, Neal provides FREE Fibonacci lessons, available here: http://www.fibmarkets.com/cgi-local/aefs/signup.cgi
Please read our disclaimer at http://www.fibmarkets.com/disclaimer.html
Posted by Admin @ 07:18 AM PST [Link]
Sunday, September 19, 2004
We thought it was time to take a longer term perspective on our ProfitPoint performance. In August we took some minor losses: we had 4 positive trades for +4.04/share and 11 negaitve trades for -7.28/share for a net loss of -3.23/share. We noted several times that in August the market was consolidating. We think it is important to note that even in that market and even with 11 losing trades, Neal's strategy of minimizing losses kept our monthly net loss to only -3.23/share.
Now let's put August into perspective with the whole year:
Net gain/loss
Jan. +22.53/share
Feb. +10.66/share
Mar. +23.68/share
Apr. +1.28/share
May + 20.94/share
June -10.64/share
July +13.22/share
Aug. -3.23/share
Total gain on positive trades is +92.13/share
Total loss on negative trades is -13.87/share
Net gain for the year is +78.26/share
(Details for all trades are posted on our website).
If you were trading 1000 share lots (which means you have a large portfolio, you would be up $78,260 for the year... That is a huge increase. If you were only trading 100 share lots (small-medium portfolio) you would be up $7,826 for the year, which to your size portfolio is also a huge gain.
Now, if you focus only on June and August, you are missing the point. The same goes if you expect to match January, March, and May's numbers month in an month out. If you are a trader you simply must expect to take some losses. No one likes it, but that's the game, folks -- to expect otherwise is being unrealistic. The key is to follow Neal's method and keep the losses small while letting the profits run. And, as the yearly numbers to date show, Neal's ProfitPoint has been a great success. This is a year to year business, not a day to day one. You must not base your success over one week or one month, but look at the long term. With investing, we challenge you to try and put up percentages consistently each year like we have with ProfitPoint. It is simply impossible. Of course it is a little more work to trade our way than to simply buy something and forget about it until next year, or 5 years down the road. But, this is the amazing result of taking control of your own money, and your own financial health.
Helping our clients make money trading the market is our number one goal.
Keep up the great trading Profit Point members!
Posted by Admin @ 08:27 AM PST [Link]
Friday, September 17, 2004
NVDA is a bit above SK resistance now, and closed the gap on the daily chart. A move down soon on the daily chart could trigger a short, else no trade.
LIFC has SK resistance $9.75-$10, has arrived there, scalpers consider shorting intra-day. Swing traders need to see intra-day support at $9.25 give way for a bigger move to materialize..
ADI has two SK resistance areas for potential shorting: $37.75 and $38.75, watch this chart for a down-turn. Resisted so far at the lower one, but can still pop to the higher one. Intraday support at $36.75 approx needs to give way for a down-move.
PSFT careful with the $20.75/$21.00 area, could stall there.
Recent ProfitPoint trades:
We closed out MERQ at a profit, are now watching a few charts for potential entry. (Details in newsletter)
Dropped NABI, it's not going anywhere soon enough for us. (Details in newsletter)
CAM near weekly resistance trend-line, watch for possible turn down on the daily chart. There is also a supporting trend-line across the bottoms on a the weekly chart, lower down. Could roll over and begin a move down to there.
Neal Hughes, FibMaster at http://www.FibMarkets.com, is a widely respected expert on Fibonacci Analysis. Neal has been in the markets for over 20 years, and has distilled what he has learned into a complete trading methodology that maximizes gains and controls risk which he publishes in his newsletter, ProfitPoint. He is also the author of several universally acclaimed Video Seminars on his website. For those new to Fibonacci analysis, Neal provides FREE Fibonacci lessons, available here: http://www.fibmarkets.com/cgi-local/aefs/signup.cgi
Please read our disclaimer at http://www.fibmarkets.com/disclaimer.html
Posted by Admin @ 07:02 AM PST [Link]
click here for NABI chart
We were short NABI from 9/8 at $11.82 EOD. It has stalled and closed above 3x3 so we exit at $12.01 EOD for a small loss of -.19, 1.6%.
click here for Profitpoint newsletter (37k file)
Posted by Admin @ 05:57 AM PST [Link]
Thursday, September 16, 2004
Below is what I said about the indexes last week:
Diamonds:
QQQ pushed through the resistance level at $34.50, the next one is at $35.77/$36.00 (SK on daily)
DIA has a resistance area similar to SPY, up at $103/$104, so look for a potential stall and turn there.
SPY has SK resistance at $113.00/$113.25 and also the top of a downward sloping weekly channel in that area.
Because of these resistance levels, this is a really dumb time to take long-term LONG trades (in general). So be careful.
S&P perspective (E-Mini)
The E-Mini has a huge down-sloping channel on the weekly chart, since the high of 1163.75 in March 2004. There is a significant resistance area near the top of that channel at 1124/1125. A turn down at that area could be the start of a move to the bottom of the channel. The E-mini is currently a little above that area, we must watch to see if it returns.
Was that right on?? Or what??
Here is my update as of today Sept 16th before the markets are open.
The markets have shown some resistance at these levels, putting big fat red bars on the daily chart. Now the test is whether this resistance level can stall the rally, and the weekly down trend-line can hold. We may see some consolidation at these levels, or perhaps even some great shorting opportunities for the near-term. The markets have some intra-day support levels to break before a down-move can begin.
Intra-day traders, keep your eyes on the bear camp, and jump in on the short side if they get excited.
Longer term (daily and up) it is too early to call this a top, though it is a potential top. Switch from a bullish mentality to a cautious potential bear. But dont be too aggressive until the market confirms a new direction.
Neal Hughes, FibMaster at http://www.FibMarkets.com, is a widely respected expert on Fibonacci Analysis. Neal has been in the markets for over 20 years, and has distilled what he has learned into a complete trading methodology that maximizes gains and controls risk which he publishes in his newsletter, ProfitPoint. He is also the author of several universally acclaimed Video Seminars on his website. For those new to Fibonacci analysis, Neal provides FREE Fibonacci lessons, available here: http://www.fibmarkets.com/cgi-local/aefs/signup.cgi
Please read our disclaimer at http://www.fibmarkets.com/disclaimer.html
Posted by Admin @ 06:11 AM PST [Link]
With the market consolidating, we took some minor losses this month:
4 Positive trades for +4.04
11 Negative trades for -7.28
Net Loss -3.23
Posted by Admin @ 05:23 AM PST [Link]
Wednesday, September 15, 2004
9/15
Sector Update:
IYR = real-estate ITF, possible double-top on the weekly chart. Daily chart turning down now. Bears look out for support at $106.00 and even stronger support at $102.50
IBB - NASD Biotech
The biotech sector has rallied from the Aug 9th low of $61.22 to a recent high of $71.35. Why is this significant? This sector is now in a resistance zone! IBB has SK resistance on the daily chart at $70.30 to $70.94, so you bulls should look for profit exits on signs of resistance. The IBB weekly trend is up, but recovering from the March-04 to Aug-04 downtrend. The current resistance could stall this market in the near-term. Stocks to watch in this sector: Amgen Inc, Biogen Idec Inc, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd SPDR, Genzyme Corp-General Division, Gilead Sciences Inc, Chiron Corp.
Short term traders may consider scalping with the bears on signs of weakness.
Neal Hughes, FibMaster at http://www.FibMarkets.com, is a widely respected expert on Fibonacci Analysis. Neal has been in the markets for over 20 years, and has distilled what he has learned into a complete trading methodology that maximizes gains and controls risk which he publishes in his newsletter, ProfitPoint. He is also the author of several universally acclaimed Video Seminars on his website. For those new to Fibonacci analysis, Neal provides FREE Fibonacci lessons, available here: http://www.fibmarkets.com/cgi-local/aefs/signup.cgi
Please read our disclaimer at http://www.fibmarkets.com/disclaimer.html
Posted by Admin @ 07:30 AM PST [Link]
Tuesday, September 14, 2004
Sept. 14
Interesting charts to trade.
NVDA is a bit above SK resistance now, and closed the gap on the daily chart. A move down soon on the daily chart could trigger a short, else no trade.
LIFC has SK resistance $9.75-$10, still on the way to there, wait for a down-trigger.
ADI has two SK resistance areas for potential shorting: $37.75 and $38.75, watch this chart for a down-turn.
Look at what I said about MOT last week. - "MOT has whipsaw danger at $15.50 approx". That was for near term bears.. Haha look at that chart.
This is what I said last week about PSFT. - "PSFT looks like it may want to run to $25.00 (weekly chart), there is some resistance at $2100 before that, on the daily chart.." Look at it today, has already run up to $18.48. Careful with the $20.75/$21.00 area, could stall there.
PXLW, here are my comments last week. - "PXLW in shorting mode, especially if $9.75 support fails. Next support below that it at $8.90". Have you seen the chart recently? It bounced at $8.85, is that magic or what?
Diamonds:
QQQ pushed through the resistance level at $34.50, the next on is at $35.77/$36.00 (SK on daily)
DIA has a resistance area similar to SPY, up at $103/$104, so look for a potential stall and turn there.
SPY has SK resistance at $113.00/$113.25 and also the top of a downward sloping weekly channel in that area.
Because of these resistance levels, this is a really dumb time to take long-term LONG trades (in general). So be careful.
Recent ProfitPoint trades:
We closed out MERQ at a profit, are now watching a few charts for potential entry. (Details in newsletter)
S&P perspective (E-Mini)
The E-Mini has a huge down-sloping channel on the weekly chart, since the high of 1163.75 in March 2004. There is a significant resistance area near the top of that channel at 1124/1125. A turn down at that area could be the start of a move to the bottom of the channel. The E-mini is currently a little above that area, we must watch to see if it returns.
Interesting sectors:
IYR = real-estate ITF, possible double-top on the weekly chart. Daily chart turning down now. Bears look out for support at $106.00 and even stronger support at $102.50
Neal Hughes, FibMaster at http://www.FibMarkets.com, is a widely respected expert on Fibonacci Analysis. Neal has been in the markets for over 20 years, and has distilled what he has learned into a complete trading methodology that maximizes gains and controls risk which he publishes in his newsletter, ProfitPoint. He is also the author of several universally acclaimed Video Seminars on his website. For those new to Fibonacci analysis, Neal provides FREE Fibonacci lessons, available here: http://www.fibmarkets.com/cgi-local/aefs/signup.cgi
Please read our disclaimer at http://www.fibmarkets.com/disclaimer.html
Posted by Admin @ 06:30 AM PST [Link]
Monday, September 13, 2004
click here for MERQ chart
We were short MERQ from 8/30 at $34.72. On 9/8 we exited half for +$1.31, 3.7%. Today, 9/10, we exited the remaining at our stop/loss, $34.72, for B/E. Total gain was +.65, 1.8%.
click here for ProfitPoint newsletter (62k file)
Posted by Admin @ 05:37 AM PST [Link]
Friday, September 10, 2004
Sept. 10
Interesting charts to trade.
NVDA only made it to $13.32, stalled and looks heavy for a potential move down to about $10.00.. NVDA still has risk of support and whipsaw, some SK support levels intraday are in the way.
LIFC has SK resistance $9.75-$10, still on the way to there, wait for a down-trigger.
ADI is an intraday short if support at $33.68 doesn't hold.
MOT has whipsaw danger at $15.50 approx, great if that support breaks!
PSFT looks like it may want to run to $25.00 (weekly chart), there is some resistance at $2100 before that, on the daily chart..
PXLW in shorting mode, especially if $9.75 support fails. Next support below that it at $8.90
SPY, DIA, QQQ, markets are showing some resistance. Too Early to call it a top.
Recent ProfitPoint trades:
We had a substantial gain, and some minor losses on several of our charts at the end of last week, while the markets test resistance.
S&P perspective (E-Mini)
The E-Mini has a huge down-sloping channel on the weekly chart, since the high of 1163.75 in March 2004. There is a significant resistance area near the top of that channel at 1124/1125. A turn down at that area could be the start of a move to the bottom of the channel. It's early to say if this will happen, but this is an important opportunity.
QQQ has a strong resistance level at $34.50, which is being tested lately. If these SK resistance levels do not hold, the market is bullish!
DIA has a resistance area similar to the S&P, up at $103/$104, so look for a potential stall and turn there.
Some discussion from our chat yesterday, still valid this morning, except that the trendline is now at 1114 approx.
[08:31] S&P E-Mini 60 minute chart, draw a trendline along the bottoms from aug 13th
[08:31] trendline is near 1112 and there is SK support there too [revised to 1114 today]
[08:31] great if that breaks!
[08:40] QCOM is a bullish chart on weekly, need retracements to buy
[08:44] IYR = real-estate ITF, possible double-top on the weekly chart. Daily chart turning down now. Early to call it a turn though.
Neal Hughes, FibMaster at http://www.FibMarkets.com, is a widely respected expert on Fibonacci Analysis, which he has been using to trade the market for over 20 years. Neal has distilled what he has learned into a complete trading methodology that maximizes gains and controls risk which he publishes in his newsletter, ProfitPoint. He is also the author of several universally acclaimed Video Seminars on his website. For those new to Fibonacci analysis, Neal provides FREE Fibonacci lessons.
Please read our disclaimer at http://www.fibmarkets.com/disclaimer.html
Posted by Admin @ 07:07 AM PST [Link]
Thursday, September 9, 2004
Sept. 9
Interesting charts to trade.
NVDA only made it to $13.32, stalled and looks heavy for a potential move down to about $10.00.. NVDA still has risk of support and whipsaw, some SK support levels intraday are in the way.
LIFC has SK resistance $9.75-$10, still on the way to there, wait for a down-trigger.
ADI is an intraday short if support at $33.68 doesn't hold.
MOT has whipsaw danger at $15.50 approx, great if that support breaks!
SPY, DIA, QQQ, markets are showing some resistance. Too Early to call it a top.
No change in the text below this line, it's still valid.
..
Recent ProfitPoint trades:
We had minor losses on several of our charts at the end of last week, while the markets test resistance.
S&P perspective (E-Mini)
The E-Mini has a huge down-sloping channel on the weekly chart, since the high of 1163.75 in March 2004. There is a significant resistance area near the top of that channel at 1124/1125. A turn down at that area could be the start of a move to the bottom of the channel. It's early to say if this will happen, but this is an important opportunity.
QQQ has a strong resistance level at $34.50, which is being tested lately. If these SK resistance levels do not hold, the market is bullish!
DIA has a resistance area similar to the S&P, up at $103/$104, so look for a potential stall and turn there.
Interesting charts to trade.
PXLW in shorting mode, especially if $9.75 support fails. Next support below that it at $8.90
Posted by Admin @ 08:21 AM PST [Link]
We are short MERQ from 8/30 at $34.72. We exit 1st half today at $33.41 on 30 minute TRSI cross up after supporting near our 1st profit point. A gain of +1.31, 3.7% in one week!
Posted by Admin @ 05:47 AM PST [Link]
Wednesday, September 8, 2004
Sept. 8
Interesting charts to trade.
NVDA daily, short the gap close if it can get there. SK resist $13.50 - Update. We may have a short trigger here, NVDA only made it to $13.32, stalled and looks heavy for a potential move down to about $10.00
LIFC has SK resistance $9.75-$10
ADI is an intraday short if support at $33.68 doesn't hold.
Some quotes from chat yesterday
[08:28] MOT short, how about that?
[08:29] nice--if breaks 8/31 low, TRSI already triggered
[08:30] SK suport $15.50 intraday
[08:31] i see -- not to much profit if that holds
MOT has whipsaw danger at $15.50 approx, great if that support breaks!
No change in the text below this line, it's still valid.
..
Recent ProfitPoint trades:
We had minor losses on several of our charts at the end of last week, while the markets test resistance.
S&P perspective (E-Mini)
The E-Mini has a huge down-sloping channel on the weekly chart, since the high of 1163.75 in March 2004. There is a significant resistance area near the top of that channel at 1124/1125. A turn down at that area could be the start of a move to the bottom of the channel. It's early to say if this will happen, but this is an important opportunity.
QQQ has a strong resistance level at $34.50, which is being tested lately. If these SK resistance levels do not hold, the market is bullish!
DIA has a resistance area similar to the S&P, up at $103/$104, so look for a potential stall and turn there.
Interesting charts to trade.
PXLW in shorting mode, especially if $9.75 support fails. Next support below that it at $8.90
Posted by Admin @ 07:20 AM PST [Link]
Tuesday, September 7, 2004
9/7
Recent ProfitPoint trades:
We had minor losses on several of our charts at the end of last week, while the markets test resistance.
S&P perspective (E-Mini)
The E-Mini has a huge down-sloping channel on the weekly chart, since the high of 1163.75 in March 2004. There is a significant resistance area near the top of that channel at 1124/1125. A turn down at that area could be the start of a move to the bottom of the channel. It's early to say if this will happen, but this is an important opportunity.
QQQ has a strong resistance level at $34.50, which is being tested lately. If these SK resistance levels do not hold, the market is bullish!
DIA has a resistance area similar to the S&P, up at $103/$104, so look for a potential stall and turn there.
Interesting charts to trade.
NVDA daily, short the gap close if it can get there. SK resist $13.50
PXLW in shorting mode, especially if $9.75 support fails. Next support below that it at $8.90
Posted by Admin @ 07:38 AM PST [Link]
Monday, September 6, 2004
click here for LOW2 chart
9/3 We were short LOW from 8/30 at 50.02 EOD. We exit today at our emergency stop, $51.25, per ProfitPoint newsletter for a loss of -$1.23, 2.4%.
Posted by Admin @ 10:57 AM PST [Link]
Friday, September 3, 2004
In ProfitPoint Fibmaster wrote; "The past few days have seen the markets push through resistance and take out most of the August highs. This has had a dreadful effect on our stocks, which were all positioned to take advantage of a down-move. We may reenter many of our recent whipsawed charts at a later time, if appropriate. Unfortunately 90% of my watchlist consists of short opportunities! Until the markets find resistance, those charts will be very difficult to trade. We'll have to focus on the long opportunities until then."
Posted by Admin @ 05:51 AM PST [Link]
click for PKI1 chart
We were short PKI from 8/31 at 17.48 EOD. Today we exit at 17.88 EOD for -.40, 2.2%.
click here for ProfitPoint newsletter (39k file)
Posted by Admin @ 05:29 AM PST [Link]
click here for IPXL chart
We were short IPXL from 8/26 at 14.80 EOD. Today we exit at 15.04 EOD for -.24, 1.6%.
click here for ProfitPoint newsletter(62k file)
Posted by Admin @ 05:22 AM PST [Link]
click here for ADI1 chart
We were short ADI from 8/25 at 35.53 EOD. Today we exit at 35.78 EOD for -.25, .7%.
click for ProfitPoint newsletter (38k file)
Posted by Admin @ 05:17 AM PST [Link]
click here for LIFC chart
We were short LIFC from 8/30 at 8.41 EOD. Today we exit at 8.85 EOD for -.44, 5.2%.
click here for ProfitPoint newsletter (65k file)
Posted by Admin @ 05:10 AM PST [Link]
click here for MER chart
We were short MER form 8/31 at 51.07 EOD. We exit today at 51.76 EOD for a loss of -.69, 1.3%.
click for ProfitPoint newsletter (38k file)
Posted by Admin @ 05:03 AM PST [Link]
Thursday, September 2, 2004
Recent ProfitPoint trades:
ACI has whipsaw, so we're exciting in favor of our more attractive charts.
S&P perspective (E-Mini)
The E-Mini has a huge down-sloping channel on the weekly chart, since the high of 1163.75 in March 2004. The current rally to 1109.75 on the daily chart puts us about half-way into that channel. The recent rally has pushed the S&P above an important resistance level, which is a bullish sign if these levels can be maintained.
QQQ has a strong resistance level at $34.50, which is being tested lately. If these SK resistance levels do not hold, the market is bullish!
DIA has the equivalent SK resistance level at 101.75 to 102.50. This resistance level still needs to be tested and broken for the bulls to prevail.
This could be a telling week. It seems that the S&P is leading the bulls, and could be over-extended. Watch these levels for great short opportunities if the bears surface.
SPY has intraday (60-min) SK support at $110.50, and also at 109.50, could stall the bears. We need those two levels to break for a great down-move. Until then, there is significant risk of whipsaw, watch your stop-losses! Profit-point is positioned to take advantage off a down-move, with some great short trades on the watch-list.
In summary, the markets have a strong chance of consolidating between the above support and resistance levels. We don't like consolidation!
Interesting charts to trade.
TZOO has provided intraday profits, from $38.79 to the $45.00 profit-point. Near the predicted profit-point we receive and exit trigger on intraday (30 and 60 minute charts). Since then TZOO demonstrates weakness, so we'll not be watching that chart any more. Thank you and good-bye to TZOO!
NVDA daily, short the gap close if it can get there. SK resist $13.50
PXLW another cheap chart for shorting - PXLW, at SK resist on daily now.
Posted by Admin @ 06:42 AM PST [Link]
clcik here for ACI chart
We were short ACI from 8/30 at $32.07 EOD. We got whipsawed out today 9/1 at $33.03 for -.96, 2.9%. Getting tired of whipsaw, but we respect our stops and remain patient.
click here for ProfitPoint newsletter(37k file)
Posted by Admin @ 05:17 AM PST [Link]
Wednesday, September 1, 2004
Recent ProfitPoint trades:
We were long AM from 8/12 at $22.73 . We closed first half on 8/23 at $23.80 for +$1.16, 5.1%. Aug 30th we close out the 2nd half for +$1.06, 4.7%. Net gain for AM is +$1.11, 4.9%.
S&P perspective (E-Mini)
The E-Mini has a huge down-sloping channel on the weekly chart, since the high of 1163.75 in March 2004. The current rally to 1109.75 on the daily chart puts us about half-way into that channel. The recent rally has pushed the S&P above an important resistance level, which is a bullish sign if these levels can be maintained.
Yesterday the S&P rallied back up towards intraday resistance levels, and look like it will open a little higher today. 1090.75 is a significant support level. That level needs to hold for the markets to rally.
QQQ has a strong resistance level at $34.50, which is being tested lately. If these SK resistance levels do not hold, the market is bullish!
DIA has the equivalent SK resistance level at 101.75 to 102.50. This resistance level still needs to be tested and broken for the bulls to prevail.
This could be a telling week. It seems that the S&P is leading the bulls, and could be over-extended. Watch these levels for great short opportunities if the bears surface.
SPY has intraday (60-min) SK support at $110.50, and also at 109.50, could stall the bears. We need those two levels to break for a great down-move. Until then, there is significant risk of whipsaw, watch your stop-losses! Profit-point is positioned to take advantage off a down-move, with some great short trades on the watch-list.
Interesting charts to trade.
TZOO has supported, making for some long opportunities intraday. I suggest intraday scalps only at this time, due to overall market weakness. Near-term intraday profit-points would be $42.75 (exceeded) , $45.00 (right there now) and $47.00, bank profits on resistance at any of those.
Aug 30th
NVDA daily, short the gap close if it can get there. SK resist $13.50
PXLW another cheap chart for shorting - PXLW, at SK resist on daily now.
Posted by Admin @ 06:42 AM PST [Link]
